'Eric Anderson' Articles

Seeded crop areas 2000-2016 charts

I have downloaded data from Statistics Canada and created charts (below) for acres seeded to give some historical perspective.  The first is for major crops in Saskatchewan only, the 2nd and 3rd are for AB SK and MB, with the first being major crops and the 2nd being secondary crops.






 

Fertilizer prices to drop a bit more - time to buy a big bin and fill it

Fertilizer prices will likely decline in the short-term then grow in the long term.  So ‘yes,’ buying a big bin now and filling it makes sense.

First of all, what proof of a price decline is there?  The downtrend is highlighted by a recent potash sale to India by Belarus (one of the very few potash producers) at the lowest prices seen in over a decade; about a third less than last year’s level as global supplies of the crop nutrient exceed demand.

About the deal - one of India’s biggest fertilizer importers, Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL), will buy 700,000 tonnes of potash at $227 (U.S.) per tonne on a cost and freight (CFR) basis.

Belarus’ contract price is likely to become the benchmark for other suppliers to India, such as Russia’s Uralkali and North American trading group Canpotex Ltd., owned by Potash Corp, Mosaic, and Agrium.

For background see this story.

The underlying thing from this is, China usually sets the floor or lowest global price for potash with their purchasing, so given the bigger annual’ish China deal is still outstanding, prices will likely decline even further.

India and China, the world’s biggest fertilizer consumers, usually sign contracts earlier in the year. This year, deals were delayed as high stocks held by farmers meant there was no rush to agree a deal.

India’s deal is a rare instance of the country signing a potash supply contract with a major producer before China.  For more information, see this story.

But then, on the upside, Belarus and Uralkali (the Russians) are looking at working together again on potash marketing , thus ending the price war that has driven down the price of potash.  These two and Canpotex (PotashCorp, Agrium, and Mosaic) basically dominate the world potash market.

And, the major trend to drive fertilizer prices in the long term is that the world is adding about 1-million people per week to its population.  We need to feed this additional million per week from the same amount of farmland – so, fertilizer demand will grow.

Now, currently, crop prices are growing faster than fertilizer costs, so things do make sense to buy now.


To take advantage of the temporarily low fertilizer prices, a Meridian fertilizer bin is your best choice. 
 
 
 
 
 

Prepare for that great crop - storage and cleaning

With everybody forecasting a great crop, are you prepared to harvest it? 

Are the combine(s) fast enough? Are there enough trucks ready to move the grain to a bin or bagging area?  Maybe the ground is wet, so is a grain cart ready to move the grain off the field towards a truck, bin, or bagging area?  Is the bagger ready with enough bags? Are the transfers, augers or conveyors able to quickly unload the grain and move it, which allows for the combine to keep moving without having to wait for unloading?

And once it's off, if you didn’t catch the fusarium with spraying, well it’s not too late.  You can use (1) a gravity table to separate the lighter infected kernels – the current best option for farmers, (2) a colour sorter/separator to pull then visually infected kernels – maybe not as good as a gravity table, or (3) a BoMill which is best used by end-users such as food processing facilities.”

Flaman Grain Cleaning and handling has all you need to get the crop into the bank.



 

Protect that crop from fusarium

It seems everybody is forecasting a great crop this year!  Now, we can't control the weather, but we can protect the crop from things like fusarium, otherwise it's value will quickly decline.

With the recent warm and wet weather, the fusarium risk is growing in Saskatchewan and ongoing in Manitoba.  Today's risk maps reveal the situation:






So, here are some handy charts to help you assess the risk and plan your spray:






This spraying requires the safe and accurate handling of chemical, and Flaman has what you need to do this.
 

Great crops forecasted - at least twice

Today's crop assessment map demonstrates a crop developing at higher than normal rates and the complete opposite of last year's lower than normal rates (see below).  This confirms the need for a warning by APAS last week when, "The potential for this year's crop to be a record setting event has been confirmed by the Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan (APAS).  In a recent press release, APAS issued notice to rail companies to be prepared for what could be a large crop this year.  You can see their actual press release here."

This year:


Last year:

 

Is everybody ready for a potentially record setting crop?

The potential for this year's crop to be a record setting event has been confirmed by the Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan (APAS).  In a recent press release, APAS issued notice to rail companies to be prepared for what could be a large crop this year.  You can see their actual press release here.

APAS said it's anyone’s guess whether it will reach the record-setting levels farmers experienced in 2013 (38.4 million tonnes, according to Statistics Canada), but either way, APAS president Norm Hall wants rail companies to be ready.  “If you remember three years ago when we had the potential of a huge crop, and turned out to be the largest crop on record, the railroads used the excuse that oh, we didn’t know this was coming, we weren’t prepared for it,” explained Hall in an interview with News Talk Radio.

So, APAS is asking the railroads to be ready to handle the grain - but they are the end of the system - the system begins with farmers?

Are farmers ready to harvest the crop within the small window of opportunity presented by crop development and the weather.

Are the combine(s) fast enough? Are there enough trucks ready to move the grain to a bin or bagging area?  Maybe the ground is wet, so is a grain cart ready to move the grain off the field towards a truck, bin, or bagging area?  Is the bagger ready with enough bags? Are the transfers, augers or conveyors able to quickly unload the grain and move it, which allows for the combine to keep moving without having to wait for unloading?

And after moving the grain by rail, are the ports and ships ready?

APAS has put rail on notice, but what about the rest of the system?




 

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